Utrecht, November 14, 2024 - Mortgage market revenue in the third quarter of 2024 again reached the highest level in two years. After the decline in mortgage sales in 2022, the recovery continues and the market is well on its way to reaching the levels seen before the slump. Compared to a year ago, the mortgage market increased 36.4% in sales, and compared to last quarter, this represents growth of 14.7%.
First-time buyers play a key role in recovery and further growth of mortgage market
In the third quarter of 2024, mortgage sales reached €36.7 billion and a total of one hundred thousand mortgages were taken out. Compared to the third quarter of 2023, this means that mortgage sales rose by 36.4% and the number of mortgages increased by 23.2%.
Despite weaker growth in the second quarter among the first-time buyers, this group regained its growth in mortgage sales and number of mortgages in the third quarter. Therefore, the growth of the mortgage market in the past quarter is mainly attributable to first-time buyers, whose strong growth in mortgage revenue increased by 18.4% compared to the second quarter of 2024. This growth may be due to higher wages and relatively lower mortgage rates. This seems to make the market more interesting for first-time buyers.
Also compared to Q3 2023, first-time buyers increased in mortgage revenue and number of mortgages. For example, mortgage revenue of first-time buyers increased 33.8% in this period, and this lender group closed 20.2% more mortgages in Q3 2024 than in Q3 2023. Finally, it is worth noting that after a spike in Q2 of 2024, those who are refinancing now remain constant in terms of mortgage revenue, and are down slightly in terms of the number of mortgages.
Growth in banks' market share continues
Once again, banks' share of the mortgage market is expanding, by 0.8 percent. Remarkably, the top three holdings are not growing as fast as the banks category as a whole. In fact, they grow by only 0.1%-point. Banks have reached another peak in market share since Q3 2019.
Unlike last quarter, this growth is only minimally attributable to first-time buyers. For example, over the past quarter, banks grew the strongest among first-time buyers, by 1.3 percentage points. Across all three lender groups, the regiepartijen (specially set up mortgage companies) shrink the most. They shrink by an average of 0.7%-point. The contraction is strongest within the refinancing lender group at 4.2 percent.
ING strengthens position as market leader
ING's market share grew by 1.4% compared to the second quarter, making it the largest riser. This growth is twice that of the second-largest climber, Nationale Nederlanden. ING Group also strengthened its position within the top 10 issuing concerns, rising to second place. Rabobank Group retains first place in this top 10, though the difference compared to ING Group is minimal.
Robust Hypotheken dropped the most of all labels, by 0.6 percent. Florius is also a notable decliner in Q3 of 2024: where it still achieved the highest growth in Q2, Florius lost 0.5% in market share in Q3 of 2024. Despite retaining its fourth position in the top-10 labels with this, Florius has increased its distance from the third place, ABN AMRO.
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Authors & data analysis of the IG&H Mortgage Update:
Pim van Keeken
Annelies van Putten
Wouter Stomphorst